Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 80

New York Giants 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

(:35) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 14 for -6 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark) [55-F.Clark], recovered by NYG-69-B.Price at NYG 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.50 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -1.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP