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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.30 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model