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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 58

New York Giants 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to KC 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown. PENALTY on NYG-47-C.Brown, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 24.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.17 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 58, worth -2.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model