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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 18

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.03 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 18, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model