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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 53

New York Giants 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to KC 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.72 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 53, worth -3.04 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP