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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Giants 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown. PENALTY on KC-90-J.Reed, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at KC 15.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP