Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 5-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to NYG 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 89-K.Toney to NYG 11 for no gain (85-M.Kemp). PENALTY on KC-85-M.Kemp, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 11.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.53 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model