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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 1
New York Giants 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7
What Actually Happened
(14:19) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 80-K.Rudolph for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.88 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 1, worth +0.31 EP
KICK
+1.76 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT
-0.15 EP
- Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
