4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 12

New England Patriots 24 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 6-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +5.94 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model