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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 30

New England Patriots 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model