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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 30

New England Patriots 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(:15) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model