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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 1-T.Long punts 49 yards to NE 22, Center-54-M.Overton. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 32 for 10 yards (54-M.Overton).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.84 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model