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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 6

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP