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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 85

Los Angeles Rams 38 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to HOU 37, Center-42-M.Orzech. 24-T.Smith to HOU 38 for 1 yard (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.97 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model