Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 89

Los Angeles Rams 38 – Houston Texans 0

(12:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to HOU 40, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 24-T.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.97 EP
58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 89, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model