4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 38

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to LA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model