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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 13 at the 78

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 63 yards to LA 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-T.Atwell to LA 15 for no gain (24-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.60 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model