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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:54) 8-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP