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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to ARI 11 for 2 yards (58-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +3.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.91 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model