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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to ARI 23, Center-43-H.Bradley. 4-R.Moore to ARI 37 for 14 yards (28-A.Dillon).

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.03 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 29, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP