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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 24 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 18-R.Cobb (42-D.Kennard).

The Three Options

GO +4.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.58 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.60 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model