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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 14 – Green Bay Packers 24

What Actually Happened

(13:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to GB 31 for 9 yards (29-R.Douglas).

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.37 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model