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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 53

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-A.Wesley to GB 46 for 7 yards (21-E.Stokes).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.88 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model