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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 7

Green Bay Packers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:28) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 19-E.St. Brown to ARI 2 for 5 yards (20-M.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 7, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model