4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 14-A.Lee punts 55 yards to GB 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.78 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model