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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 3

Green Bay Packers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:28) 2-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.57 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 3, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP