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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 66

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(7:24) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to NYJ 19, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 66, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP