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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Jets 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 6-M.Ammendola 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model