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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 6 at the 50

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(12:22) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.03 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 50, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP