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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 64

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to NYJ 19, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.69 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model