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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 36

New York Jets 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 6-M.Ammendola 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model