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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 80

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(3:32) 10-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to ATL 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams to ATL 39 for 8 yards (50-J.Stanford; 45-G.Ricci).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.41 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 80, worth -4.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 37, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model