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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 5-Z.Gonzalez 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model