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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 10-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to ATL 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams to ATL 25 for 13 yards (57-C.Johnston).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -2.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model