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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 18 at the 83

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 19

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 12-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to CAR 37, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model