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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 5

Carolina Panthers 9 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:37) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 5, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP