4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 6 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 10-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.55 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP