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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 28

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 7-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.12 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model