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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 33

Carolina Panthers 3 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 5-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.88 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 33, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP