Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 76

Washington Commanders 10 – Green Bay Packers 24

(:29) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles right end pushed ob at WAS 40 for 16 yards (29-R.Douglas). GB-29-R.Douglas was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.61 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 76, worth -1.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP