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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 20 at the 21

Green Bay Packers 21 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model