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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 3

Washington Commanders 7 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 83-R.Seals-Jones (31-A.Amos). Yard marker changed due to change of possession

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.39 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model