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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 1

Washington Commanders 7 – Green Bay Packers 21

What Actually Happened

(5:57) 4-T.Heinicke up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (59-D.Campbell). FUMBLES (59-D.Campbell), and recovers at GB 1. 4-T.Heinicke to GB 1 for no gain (52-R.Gary). Washington challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:52.)

The Three Options

GO +3.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 1, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model