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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 27

Washington Commanders 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (21-E.Stokes).

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model