Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 69

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

(3:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to NO 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 1-M.Callaway to NO 20 for 2 yards (44-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model