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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to SEA 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.13 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 42, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.08 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP