Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 65

New Orleans Saints 10 – Seattle Seahawks 10

(12:32) 4-B.Gillikin punts 56 yards to SEA 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-F.Swain pushed ob at SEA 20 for 11 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.89 EP
67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model