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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 32

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(:18) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.41 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 32, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 42, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model