Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 80

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Tennessee Titans 27

(2:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short right to 10-T.Hill to KC 37 for 17 yards (23-C.Jones) [92-O.Adeniyi].

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP

What Happened

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.88 EP
51% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model