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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 52

Tennessee Titans 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(4:34) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to KC 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.20 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model